How might we Shuffle off this Mortal Coil?
- a personal view from Ian Mercer -
(and see the books at the end)
Coal and Oil are our Coil...
Coal, oil and gas are hydrocarbons which developed from naturally-buried life forms. They gathered as substantial deposits in response to global climate heating at certain stages in the Earth's history, many millions of years ago. We have been removing these hydrocarbons and using them mainly as fuels to advance our living conditions through the past couple of hundred years. So we are busy returning that hidden-away global warming effect straight back to the Earth's air, very suddenly: a huge, understandable human failing, which overpopulation has amplified to potentially disastrous levels. If we fail to release ourselves rapidly from our gross dependency on these substances then humans and many other life forms are unlikely to survive in a reasonably stable manner.
OK, it's not your fault
Up till recently people did not understand the implications of our actions in re-using so much carbon so quickly. Each past episode of mass burial – mostly of plant life – was a natural and gradual response to an increase in natural global warming during hundreds of thousands to millions of years. Such global heating events occurred, for instance, 310 million years ago in the Carboniferous Period and 155 million years ago in the Jurassic Period. These events tended to be gradual enough for life to adjust or redevelop over millions of years. Nevertheless, there were major extinctions. With our unwittingly rapid activity transforming the Earth's carbon bank back into global climate warming it has become clear to the more logical of humans that we need to put the brakes on extremely urgently.
Too fast... too fast!
Within the Earth's slow-acting ecological systems we are returning the global heating agent to the atmosphere 'instantaneously', which means that many forms of life will not have the slightest chance to adjust in response, ourselves included. Indeed, human society is likely to fail catastrophically if its current paltry action is anything to go by. Now that we know what we have been doing to the planet and ourselves for the past couple of hundred years or so, it is logically stupid to continue to use buried hydrocarbons in any but small quantities. What is desperately unfortunate is that so many humans are, despite advanced Western education, incapable of accepting this basic and logical truth and are thereby helping to delay critical braking to try to prevent the worst of the big changes to come. We probably have only a few years to act.
When worst comes to worst
At certain times in the Earth's history there was a more drastic natural outcome from global heating because massive hydrocarbon burial did not get under way. Notably this happened around 250 million years ago at the start of the Triassic Period and a rich diversity of life did not return for tens of millions of years. At that time the Sun was cooler than it is now. It is uncertain that the Earth could ever recover its diversity of life if such severe heating happened now. The most drastic solution may yet become the only solution. It is so drastic that it may only be brought on by 'natural' means, such as a wholesale virulent 'flu epidemic plus famine caused by climate change. The response by governments is already hugely inadequate and is likely to continue as such. Producing 'green' electricity from wind, wave and sunlight generators can only be a partial component: these are inadequate without known heavy technology such as nuclear power, which is a sensible component if it is brought in very rapidly in large quantities: we might just be able to survive with all these means plus meaningful energy conservation, soil conservation and management and a real reduction in deforestation. Without the means and the will to alter and reduce energy use then the future is extremely bleak for ‘civilisation’.
Uncivilised options
Civilisation, of course, involves your use of a washing machine, mobile phone (or any phone), flush toilet, bus, easy food shopping, TV and radio, car, cheap clothing, central heating with instant hot water, a cooker, the internet, bananas. Maybe you are happy to manage without the last of these. Sorry, but your energy efficient bike can get stolen in no time. Yet there is so much else to lose and so little time to try to head off the worst of the great change to come. Successive global crises in our 'civilised' financial system will no doubt play themselves out to our great discomfort. That will be as nothing compared with what's to come if we cannot take sensible action to put the brakes on climate change. The evidence is in the rocks, the air, the ice, the seas and the life on this planet. Such evidence can be hard to discern and almost futile to quantify, and it is impossible to predict with any accuracy. Is that any reason at all to just let it happen to the Earth, to ourselves, when the evidence that we do have is so stark?
What has all this to do with ERMS then?
At ERMS we have talks on all sorts of interesting subjects involving rocks, minerals, climate, ancient life forms and energy sources, as well as the dynamic actions of this planet. We also see in our field trips some of the evidence, right in front of our eyes. Only a few hundred metres from our Hornchurch meeting place is evidence of a drastic climate change which happened pretty recently in geological terms: a change-over from intense cold with an ice-cap right down to where Hornchurch church is now; the ice even spread down across where ERMS meets. We could not survive that climate. Overlying the chalky boulder clay dumped by that ice is a gravel bed of the old River Thames. It was warmer and we could have lived by its banks at the time, 400,000 years ago. A hard, short and brutal life maybe, but possible. We regularly visit Walton on the Naze and the Suffolk Crag sites. They also reveal climate evidence. With such obvious clues before our very eyes it should be no mystery to us that change is often drastic and profound. What is harder to realise is that a very big change is pushing upon us right at this minute, and much more rapidly than is sustainable for our civilised communities, let alone natural communities. What we are now in is classifiable mathematically and scientifically as a catastrophe. An appreciation of timescale is needed in order to realise this, plus a moment’s thought. Humankind worldwide has little time to try to prevent this catastrophe from becoming completely unmanageable. At ERMS we keep ourselves enlightened in Earth topics and get our hands dirty in the process. Maybe this will help us to enlighten others, help them to look at the rocks and fossils and their story of drastic change and ancient, but more gradual, global catastrophes.
More information
Six Degrees – our future on a hotter planet by Mark Lynas; Harper 2008.
This is a sensible account, which indicates the levels of knowledge and the basis of the dangers and options open to us. The final chapter is particularly level-headed and balanced, looking at human frailties and reactions to the problems and the choices available to us right now. The main part of the book reviews the forecast and reactions to each one-degree increase in global average temperature. Two degrees might be manageable; three degrees is dangerous and could lead to the four, five and six degree increases. Those would be catastrophic, for human civilisation as well as for the rest of life on Earth. Frightening, but essential reading for all.
Two books by James Lovelock: The Revenge of Gaia; Penguin 2007 and
The Vanishing Face of Gaia; Penguin 2010.
Now in his nineties, Lovelock has a background of life science, physics and engineering amongst many other abilities. His Gaia theory has set the basis for a balanced and logical view of how the Earth's ecosystems interact and change. Unfortunately, from his wide and deep view of the dynamics of natural feedback mechanisms and human reaction, he is not optimistic that governments and society are likely or able to act logically or fast enough for the future wellbeing of the Earth or its stock of life. The books give an amazing, readable account.
http://www.jameslovelock.org/
Sustainable Energy – without the hot air by David MacKay; UIT Cambridge 2009.
MacKay has made this excellent work available free online either to browse or to download in its entirety; it is also available as a large paperback. Read it to clear away all the rubbish you might have heard concerning energy and sustainability and options available to us. Here is the book that puts it all in terms of easily understood numbers, relating all energy sources and consumption in one easy quantity, the kilowatt-hour. Graphics reveal the balance of power in every different situation. All the detailed figures are at the end if you want proof. This book debunks stupidity, bias and deliberate confusion: you can see for yourself and decide for yourself.
http://www.withouthotair.com/
Reading the Rocks- The Autobiography of the Earth by Marcia Bjornerud; Basic Books, paperback 2006. 256pp.
This delightfully readable book digs deep and takes you far without shirking the scientific basis of each piece of evidence given by our planet. A brilliant book by this gifted American author, with good glossary, notes and index. For a true understanding of geology and sensible answers to the sort of questions that follow its study, this book has few equals. A 4.5 billion year field trip.
There are plenty of other books about energy and climate change, although most are either about quite specific aspects of these subjects or they are downright biased, one way or another. The five books reviewed here are about as broadly-based and unbiased as any I have read and together they give a reasoned overall picture of the situation as it changes around us.
This is a personal view and it does not represent the policy of ERMS or the views of its members; I have put this here to provide food for thought and discussion. Members' reactions are welcome.
Ian
- a personal view from Ian Mercer -
(and see the books at the end)
Coal and Oil are our Coil...
Coal, oil and gas are hydrocarbons which developed from naturally-buried life forms. They gathered as substantial deposits in response to global climate heating at certain stages in the Earth's history, many millions of years ago. We have been removing these hydrocarbons and using them mainly as fuels to advance our living conditions through the past couple of hundred years. So we are busy returning that hidden-away global warming effect straight back to the Earth's air, very suddenly: a huge, understandable human failing, which overpopulation has amplified to potentially disastrous levels. If we fail to release ourselves rapidly from our gross dependency on these substances then humans and many other life forms are unlikely to survive in a reasonably stable manner.
OK, it's not your fault
Up till recently people did not understand the implications of our actions in re-using so much carbon so quickly. Each past episode of mass burial – mostly of plant life – was a natural and gradual response to an increase in natural global warming during hundreds of thousands to millions of years. Such global heating events occurred, for instance, 310 million years ago in the Carboniferous Period and 155 million years ago in the Jurassic Period. These events tended to be gradual enough for life to adjust or redevelop over millions of years. Nevertheless, there were major extinctions. With our unwittingly rapid activity transforming the Earth's carbon bank back into global climate warming it has become clear to the more logical of humans that we need to put the brakes on extremely urgently.
Too fast... too fast!
Within the Earth's slow-acting ecological systems we are returning the global heating agent to the atmosphere 'instantaneously', which means that many forms of life will not have the slightest chance to adjust in response, ourselves included. Indeed, human society is likely to fail catastrophically if its current paltry action is anything to go by. Now that we know what we have been doing to the planet and ourselves for the past couple of hundred years or so, it is logically stupid to continue to use buried hydrocarbons in any but small quantities. What is desperately unfortunate is that so many humans are, despite advanced Western education, incapable of accepting this basic and logical truth and are thereby helping to delay critical braking to try to prevent the worst of the big changes to come. We probably have only a few years to act.
When worst comes to worst
At certain times in the Earth's history there was a more drastic natural outcome from global heating because massive hydrocarbon burial did not get under way. Notably this happened around 250 million years ago at the start of the Triassic Period and a rich diversity of life did not return for tens of millions of years. At that time the Sun was cooler than it is now. It is uncertain that the Earth could ever recover its diversity of life if such severe heating happened now. The most drastic solution may yet become the only solution. It is so drastic that it may only be brought on by 'natural' means, such as a wholesale virulent 'flu epidemic plus famine caused by climate change. The response by governments is already hugely inadequate and is likely to continue as such. Producing 'green' electricity from wind, wave and sunlight generators can only be a partial component: these are inadequate without known heavy technology such as nuclear power, which is a sensible component if it is brought in very rapidly in large quantities: we might just be able to survive with all these means plus meaningful energy conservation, soil conservation and management and a real reduction in deforestation. Without the means and the will to alter and reduce energy use then the future is extremely bleak for ‘civilisation’.
Uncivilised options
Civilisation, of course, involves your use of a washing machine, mobile phone (or any phone), flush toilet, bus, easy food shopping, TV and radio, car, cheap clothing, central heating with instant hot water, a cooker, the internet, bananas. Maybe you are happy to manage without the last of these. Sorry, but your energy efficient bike can get stolen in no time. Yet there is so much else to lose and so little time to try to head off the worst of the great change to come. Successive global crises in our 'civilised' financial system will no doubt play themselves out to our great discomfort. That will be as nothing compared with what's to come if we cannot take sensible action to put the brakes on climate change. The evidence is in the rocks, the air, the ice, the seas and the life on this planet. Such evidence can be hard to discern and almost futile to quantify, and it is impossible to predict with any accuracy. Is that any reason at all to just let it happen to the Earth, to ourselves, when the evidence that we do have is so stark?
What has all this to do with ERMS then?
At ERMS we have talks on all sorts of interesting subjects involving rocks, minerals, climate, ancient life forms and energy sources, as well as the dynamic actions of this planet. We also see in our field trips some of the evidence, right in front of our eyes. Only a few hundred metres from our Hornchurch meeting place is evidence of a drastic climate change which happened pretty recently in geological terms: a change-over from intense cold with an ice-cap right down to where Hornchurch church is now; the ice even spread down across where ERMS meets. We could not survive that climate. Overlying the chalky boulder clay dumped by that ice is a gravel bed of the old River Thames. It was warmer and we could have lived by its banks at the time, 400,000 years ago. A hard, short and brutal life maybe, but possible. We regularly visit Walton on the Naze and the Suffolk Crag sites. They also reveal climate evidence. With such obvious clues before our very eyes it should be no mystery to us that change is often drastic and profound. What is harder to realise is that a very big change is pushing upon us right at this minute, and much more rapidly than is sustainable for our civilised communities, let alone natural communities. What we are now in is classifiable mathematically and scientifically as a catastrophe. An appreciation of timescale is needed in order to realise this, plus a moment’s thought. Humankind worldwide has little time to try to prevent this catastrophe from becoming completely unmanageable. At ERMS we keep ourselves enlightened in Earth topics and get our hands dirty in the process. Maybe this will help us to enlighten others, help them to look at the rocks and fossils and their story of drastic change and ancient, but more gradual, global catastrophes.
More information
Six Degrees – our future on a hotter planet by Mark Lynas; Harper 2008.
This is a sensible account, which indicates the levels of knowledge and the basis of the dangers and options open to us. The final chapter is particularly level-headed and balanced, looking at human frailties and reactions to the problems and the choices available to us right now. The main part of the book reviews the forecast and reactions to each one-degree increase in global average temperature. Two degrees might be manageable; three degrees is dangerous and could lead to the four, five and six degree increases. Those would be catastrophic, for human civilisation as well as for the rest of life on Earth. Frightening, but essential reading for all.
Two books by James Lovelock: The Revenge of Gaia; Penguin 2007 and
The Vanishing Face of Gaia; Penguin 2010.
Now in his nineties, Lovelock has a background of life science, physics and engineering amongst many other abilities. His Gaia theory has set the basis for a balanced and logical view of how the Earth's ecosystems interact and change. Unfortunately, from his wide and deep view of the dynamics of natural feedback mechanisms and human reaction, he is not optimistic that governments and society are likely or able to act logically or fast enough for the future wellbeing of the Earth or its stock of life. The books give an amazing, readable account.
http://www.jameslovelock.org/
Sustainable Energy – without the hot air by David MacKay; UIT Cambridge 2009.
MacKay has made this excellent work available free online either to browse or to download in its entirety; it is also available as a large paperback. Read it to clear away all the rubbish you might have heard concerning energy and sustainability and options available to us. Here is the book that puts it all in terms of easily understood numbers, relating all energy sources and consumption in one easy quantity, the kilowatt-hour. Graphics reveal the balance of power in every different situation. All the detailed figures are at the end if you want proof. This book debunks stupidity, bias and deliberate confusion: you can see for yourself and decide for yourself.
http://www.withouthotair.com/
Reading the Rocks- The Autobiography of the Earth by Marcia Bjornerud; Basic Books, paperback 2006. 256pp.
This delightfully readable book digs deep and takes you far without shirking the scientific basis of each piece of evidence given by our planet. A brilliant book by this gifted American author, with good glossary, notes and index. For a true understanding of geology and sensible answers to the sort of questions that follow its study, this book has few equals. A 4.5 billion year field trip.
There are plenty of other books about energy and climate change, although most are either about quite specific aspects of these subjects or they are downright biased, one way or another. The five books reviewed here are about as broadly-based and unbiased as any I have read and together they give a reasoned overall picture of the situation as it changes around us.
This is a personal view and it does not represent the policy of ERMS or the views of its members; I have put this here to provide food for thought and discussion. Members' reactions are welcome.
Ian
